An Outlook of Recent Sub-Saharan Africa’s Hydroelectric Power Development and Inherent Challenges: A Geospatial Review.

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is home to more than 1.21 billion people and is the world’s youngest and fastest-growing population. Although it possesses vast potential for hydroelectric power (HPP) development, it still faces an extreme energy deficit. As global and regional collaborative efforts are being exerted to electrify the region and decarbonize its energy sector, this review aims to provide a visual representation of the extent of development observed in recent years and the associated challenges potentially impacting its sustainability. Using the interpolation algorithm in ArcMap, a comparative analysis between three spatially referenced datasets, namely, potential, harnessed, and existing capacities, was performed. These data were obtained from the Renewable Power Plant Database for Africa (RePP Africa), the International Hydropower Association (IHA), and the Global Energy Monitor (GEM), respectively. Out of several highlighted challenges, climate risk is emphasized by assessing a 2-decade (2001–2020) period of precipitation and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (CRU). As of 2022, 19.6% (35.248 GW) was harnessed out of the estimated potential HPP capacity (179.782 GW). This represents a developmental rate of ~9.7% from 2019 to 2022. Compared with the harnessed capacity, the existing capacity in 2023 exceeded 0.68 GW, a difference of 1.061 GW, which is attributable to HPPs with capacities less than 75 MW. Climate risk assessment revealed that temperature and precipitation increased by 2.42% (0.6 °C) and 5.97% (49.43 mm, respectively. Despite the mixed spatial distribution of these developments and potential challenges, the grid transboundary transmission and distribution (T&D) of SSA have proven promising. However, environmental, socioeconomic, political, and policy-based repercussions associated with these inherent challenges already require robust solution-based decision-making.