Quantifying Fossil Fuel Burden and Designing an Optimal Renewable Energy Mix for India with Local Hybrid System Validation

Abstract

India’s growing electricity demand is still predominantly met through fossil fuels, causing severe environmental damage, escalating healthcare problems and heavy economic losses due to resultant air pollution. A shift toward renewable energy with lower carbon emissions is essential for long-term sustainability. This study evaluates the societal cost of fossil fuel dependence and proposes a two-level strategy to accelerate renewable energy adoption in India. At the national level, MCDA and a linear optimization model was used to determine a cost-effective and balanced renewable energy mix capable of generating around 1200 TWh per year. The model incorporated capital and operating costs (IRENA, CEA), regional resource availability, climatic suitability (MNRE, IMD), and policy constraints. The findings indicate that a mix dominated by solar and wind energy-together supplying about 75% of total generation-offers the most economical and scalable pathway. Hydropower and biomass improve reliability and rural access, while nuclear and green hydrogen support base-load and long-term energy security. At the local level, a grid-connected hybrid system as the most cost-effective configuration, with PV and wind turbine contribution. The optimal system consisted of 25 kW wind turbines, 65 kW solar PV, 60 kW converters, 200kWh battery and grid support achieving high efficiency with a payback period of approximately 12.8 years. It was analyzed at Poornima University, Jaipur using HOMER Pro software. Overall, this integrated strategy provides a practical roadmap for India’s sustainable and self-reliant energy future.